Yes, You Can Bet On The Election!!!

As I said in the last post, the election is over. At least the Presidential election is over. After 30 years of primaries, conventions, debates, and disturbing ads we are at the eve of another Presidential election. Most people I have talked to who know a lot more than me about politics suggested to me that the turn-out rate will be around 80%, which will cause absolute chaos tomorrow. This chaos will result in not knowing much of anything solid until 2 a.m. Eastern time. There will be long lines and there will be people crying foul because people will still be in line in some states as the polls close. Most states have refused requests to change the time polling ends. This will be a significant factor if things get close in key states and they will. However, in the end the election is over. I expect that Obama will win tomorrow in the end. I gave my endorsement of him in my last post and I am not budging from that position. One thing that is not over regarding this election is the betting.

Leave it to me as a degenerate gambler to try to get my gamble on with the results of this election. Right now, the odds of victory stand 1-7 for Obama and 4-1 for McCain. This means that anyone betting on Obama using those odds will not win any money because he is such a huge favorite. Best to bet straight up if you can find anyone silly enough to bet against Obama. No where have I found an electoral vote spread for the election. Based on the polls in every state, the electoral college spread should be 169 votes in favor of Obama. So with this in mind and the fact that there are six states that are considered toss-ups I will handicap tomorrow's election results.

Obama (-169) vs. McCain

This is the spread for the electoral college votes in the end. This spread was based on the poll numbers for each state. However, there are so many possible factors that could cause the voting in specific states to swing one way or the other. Obama needs 270 to win. I believe he will get 311, which will result in a spread of 125. I do not think that Obama will win all the states that he is favored to win and also think that many of the toss up states will go to McCain. Obama will get enough to win, but he's not going to cover.


Florida

The big toss-up state that is leaning currently towards Obama. A high voter turn-out in this state especially with Latino voters (many of which will be first time voters) will cause this bitter contest to eventually in Obama's corner.


Georgia

I would be shocked if Obama won Georgia for obvious reasons that I really do not want to get into. If he does win it will show that the state of Georgia has permanently changed politically as a result of the millions of transplants from the Northeast and the West crowding into Atlanta's suburbs. It won't happen this time. McCain will take this state in wider margin than expected.


North Carolina

Read the Georgia entry. Same thing applies to North Carolina. McCain is leading in the polls in NC and he will win comfortably. Also, if you all in NC elect McCrory as your governor then you get the rain of locusts that you deserve for doing it. He was bad for Charlotte and he will be bad for everyone else. Don't say I did not warn you.


Indiana

As a state bordering Obama's I thought that this state should be leaning towards Obama, however it is leaning towards McCain. McCain has strong support on the ground in Indiana and I expect that he will win as a result.


Missouri

The urban and suburban centers of Kansas City and St. Louis plus higher voter turn-out than expected will result in an easier than expected win for Obama.


North Dakota

If this state falls to McCain then there should be an immediate resolution to send this state to Canada. This state is leaning towards Obama and it will stay true to form.


Montana

Does anyone really think that Obama has a chance in this state? The fact that this is a toss-up shows how well his campaign has done. In the end, this states meager 3 votes will not matter much especially after Obama gets California, Washington, and Oregon later in the night.