Momentum Is A Bitch

Momentum is a wonderful thing. Momentum is huge in sports. The Giants had all the energy and momentum headed into the Super Bowl against a skidding, but still winning Patriots squad. Who ended up on top? The Giants. The Giants were the underdogs from the very beginning of the season. No one expected to land in the Big Bowl. People were speculating as to the firing of their head coach and the leadership of their quarterback. Their key running back retired and at the end of the season they lost their star tight end. It didn't matter. They built on momentum on what was thought of at the time minor victories and even a "moral victory" loss. In a sport where there supposedly is no such thing as a moral victory, the Giants had that when they lost to the heavily favored Patriots team by three points after leading mid-way in the fourth quarter. They found their voice and their direction and rode it all the way to victory in Arizona.

Momentum is also playing itself out in the Democratic race for the nomination. Whitewater Hillary started the campaign season as the front runner. She had many other candidates that were looking up at her popular name recognition and ammunition of a large war chest of money and saw a nearly unbeatable opponent. Oprah Obama shocked the world by beating Clinton in Iowa. However, Clinton began her climb as the front runner. She initially trounced her competition. Then, her victory margins began to shrink. Oprah Obama Winfrey began to catch up and post his own victories. Clinton began to tank loads of money into Super Tuesday as Obama started surging and shrinking the gap in the polls. On Super Tuesday, instead of Whitewater Hillary finishing off Oprah Obama, it was Obama who won 13 states to Clinton's eight. It was Obama who was gaining speed. It was Obama who held a 36-13 million dollar edge over Clinton in the last month in contributions. Obama has been energizing his base of supporters and using his voice that speaks of change and hope for the future. This was what Clinton was hoping to be doing at this time in the campaign. Instead she is reeling and skidding trying to keep the campaign from sinking below the water line. She is still ahead overall in delegates, but as she and Obama head into a very critical five day stretch that lead is shrinking. More importantly, the momentum is now on Oprah Obama Winfrey's side. It should not be a surprise if they are at a dead heat in delegate count after next Tuesday.

My picks:
Louisiana primary (Saturday): Obama
Louisiana's population is made up of thirty-two percent African-Americans. Clinton's husband was popular with the African-American vote during his run and Hillary was hoping for more of the same. However, the results have shown Obama getting the majority of the African-American vote. Hillary has not visited Louisiana during the campaign. Obama has visited once. Enough for a small edge.

Nebraska caucus (Saturday): Obama
Clinton has virtually ignored this state as her daughter has been campaigning there by herself. Obama has roots in near-by Kansas. Most of the papers in Nebraska favor Obama.

Washington caucus (Saturday): Clinton
Most people are picking Oprah Obama in this one as he is leading in the polls with women voters and the fact that it is a caucus state. I am not convinced that he will win in a state that Clinton has made more appearances and paid more attention to it's 96 delegate bounty.

Maine caucus (Sunday): Obama
Barack may shock the world in a state that Clinton should win with an easy margin. Polls put Clinton in the lead and her established credit make it an easy win for her. I am not convinced that she can win a caucus without Latino voters.

Washington, D.C. primary (Tuesday): Obama
This is way too easy to pick. Think about it.

Maryland primary (Tuesday): Obama
This one is also almost too easy. Maryland has wealthy suburbanites, liberals, and college students that are Oprah Obama's base. Maryland also has a significant base of African-American voters.

Virginia primary (Tuesday): Obama
Both Whitewater and Obama Winfrey are pushing this state hard. There will be a lot of money dumped into TV ads and running all over the state to pick off many of the 101 delegates that are up for grabs. The governor has put his hat with Obama. Clinton will be strong in everywhere except Northern Virginia, Richmond, and Tidewater, which unfortunately is the heaviest voting block in the state. Despite her connections and money, without the Golden Crescent vote in her favor, Whitewater Hillary will lose in a close vote.