Momentum Is A Bitch

Momentum is a wonderful thing. Momentum is huge in sports. The Giants had all the energy and momentum headed into the Super Bowl against a skidding, but still winning Patriots squad. Who ended up on top? The Giants. The Giants were the underdogs from the very beginning of the season. No one expected to land in the Big Bowl. People were speculating as to the firing of their head coach and the leadership of their quarterback. Their key running back retired and at the end of the season they lost their star tight end. It didn't matter. They built on momentum on what was thought of at the time minor victories and even a "moral victory" loss. In a sport where there supposedly is no such thing as a moral victory, the Giants had that when they lost to the heavily favored Patriots team by three points after leading mid-way in the fourth quarter. They found their voice and their direction and rode it all the way to victory in Arizona.

Momentum is also playing itself out in the Democratic race for the nomination. Whitewater Hillary started the campaign season as the front runner. She had many other candidates that were looking up at her popular name recognition and ammunition of a large war chest of money and saw a nearly unbeatable opponent. Oprah Obama shocked the world by beating Clinton in Iowa. However, Clinton began her climb as the front runner. She initially trounced her competition. Then, her victory margins began to shrink. Oprah Obama Winfrey began to catch up and post his own victories. Clinton began to tank loads of money into Super Tuesday as Obama started surging and shrinking the gap in the polls. On Super Tuesday, instead of Whitewater Hillary finishing off Oprah Obama, it was Obama who won 13 states to Clinton's eight. It was Obama who was gaining speed. It was Obama who held a 36-13 million dollar edge over Clinton in the last month in contributions. Obama has been energizing his base of supporters and using his voice that speaks of change and hope for the future. This was what Clinton was hoping to be doing at this time in the campaign. Instead she is reeling and skidding trying to keep the campaign from sinking below the water line. She is still ahead overall in delegates, but as she and Obama head into a very critical five day stretch that lead is shrinking. More importantly, the momentum is now on Oprah Obama Winfrey's side. It should not be a surprise if they are at a dead heat in delegate count after next Tuesday.

My picks:
Louisiana primary (Saturday): Obama
Louisiana's population is made up of thirty-two percent African-Americans. Clinton's husband was popular with the African-American vote during his run and Hillary was hoping for more of the same. However, the results have shown Obama getting the majority of the African-American vote. Hillary has not visited Louisiana during the campaign. Obama has visited once. Enough for a small edge.

Nebraska caucus (Saturday): Obama
Clinton has virtually ignored this state as her daughter has been campaigning there by herself. Obama has roots in near-by Kansas. Most of the papers in Nebraska favor Obama.

Washington caucus (Saturday): Clinton
Most people are picking Oprah Obama in this one as he is leading in the polls with women voters and the fact that it is a caucus state. I am not convinced that he will win in a state that Clinton has made more appearances and paid more attention to it's 96 delegate bounty.

Maine caucus (Sunday): Obama
Barack may shock the world in a state that Clinton should win with an easy margin. Polls put Clinton in the lead and her established credit make it an easy win for her. I am not convinced that she can win a caucus without Latino voters.

Washington, D.C. primary (Tuesday): Obama
This is way too easy to pick. Think about it.

Maryland primary (Tuesday): Obama
This one is also almost too easy. Maryland has wealthy suburbanites, liberals, and college students that are Oprah Obama's base. Maryland also has a significant base of African-American voters.

Virginia primary (Tuesday): Obama
Both Whitewater and Obama Winfrey are pushing this state hard. There will be a lot of money dumped into TV ads and running all over the state to pick off many of the 101 delegates that are up for grabs. The governor has put his hat with Obama. Clinton will be strong in everywhere except Northern Virginia, Richmond, and Tidewater, which unfortunately is the heaviest voting block in the state. Despite her connections and money, without the Golden Crescent vote in her favor, Whitewater Hillary will lose in a close vote.

Why is Oprah Obama Winfrey Smiling?

If you had asked me two weeks ago what the races for the Democratic and Republican nomination would look like this morning after what I was figuring would be a dramatic Super Tuesday, I would have told you that the Democratic race would be over and the Republican race would be too close to call. I would have stated with some glumness that Whitewater Hillary would be running away with the nomination and that the Big Three shysters of McCain, Romney, and Huckabee in a close race (with Huckabee nearing the end of the line). Instead, we wake up to find that Whitewater Hillary and Obama Winfrey preparing for a drawn out and expensive race. Oprah Obama won 13 states to Hillary's eight. The delegate count (a convoluted sinkhole of a system) extremely close. I had expected that Mrs. Clinton would break-away from Obama and go on a money and time cruise control. It did not happen. Now, Whitewater has had to dip into her own personal slush fund ($5 million) to assist her campaign slush fund. Nothing wrong with this move, but it signals trouble for her as she has cruised with money only from her campaign fund raising up to now. Clinton only raised $13 million this past month to Oprah Obama Winfrey's $32 million. When your opponent is raising more than twice as much money as you then you are sinking (or at least on the verge). Obama is surging now. His message is becoming clearer, more energizing, and more distinct from Hillary's. Obama is appealing to the true core of the Democratic party. He is showing himself as a semi-liberal Democrat and his opposite of the US position in Iraq resonates with his party. His message of the need for change is louder and clearer than Whitewater's murky centrist message that her husband rode so success in the last decade. The message is the key. Obama truly represents the prospect of a new order. Clinton's message is conveying an old message from 1992 as opposed to a much needed message for 2008. Her campaign tactics are the same as her husband's in 1992. I will expect a major change in her campaign team in the coming weeks when her desperate attempt to get $3 million in the next three days from her supporters fails.

You have to admire the political resiliency of John McCain. After a disaster of a campaign in 2000 and predictions of total humiliating failure in 2008 he is well on his way to the GOP nomination. Reports indicate that it will be impossible for Shyster Romney and Father Shyster Huckabee to catch him. I am not even sure McCain himself would have predicted this to happen. McCain is benefiting from what I will further call the Asterisk Effect. This phenomena occurs when the President has pissed everyone in his own party off (as well as everybody else in the country) to the point that any candidate that reminds the party of the President will be rolled by anyone who can sufficiently separate themselves from them. This is what is occurring for McCain now. He has positioned himself as a centrist moderate Republican versus the nearly insanely conservative candidates Romney and Huckabee. The party masses alienated by President Asterisk and not willing to jump party affiliation see McCain has a hew hope and are aligning with him. I am still not clear as to what Huckabee stands for beyond giving AK-47 rifles to the severely emotionally disturbed children who will never receive services under his reign in front of a schoolhouse. He appears as a "Joe Six Pack" Republican that was appealing when Asterisk was running in 2000. It appears to be working to a point...except when you look at the numbers. Huckabee won four states. One of them was West Virginia. He won that state with only 571 votes. Hardly a ringing victory. I actually feel a little sorry for Shyster Romney. Mitt was a centrist moderate Republican governor in the Mass. He then flip-flopped to look like a ultra conservative Republican just like Asterisk. I wonder if he had just stayed true to himself where he would be now. He has dumped $20 million of his own fortune to make himself look like a TV anchor talking head Republican only to see that his old message being rung by McCain to an easy victory for the GOP nomination. Harsh expensive lesson, but he really deserves it for not being true to his own political chops.

We have the home stretch coming up. Shyster McCain on cruise control and Oprah Obama surging and political gambling degenerates like myself are licking their wounds.